PRICE OF BREXIT
WITOLD DUDZIŃSKI
The first prey of brexit is the prime minister Theresa May. But also the conservatives and the Labour party activists, who have shared their power in Great Britain, may also fall a prey to it
Everyone was awaiting the first surveys of popularity of British political parties after the election for the European Parliament. They might either weaken or strengthen the results of voting in which traditional parties were defeated and the victory was won on the day before the day of voting – Brexit Party of Nigel Farage.
The results of the first surveys show that electors did not want to reject Nigel Farage after the election for the EP: Brexit Party gained the most votes of them. It must be a permanent tendency which may mean that the world we know with the permanent game about the power on the Islands between the conservatives and the labour party activists is disappearing.
The worst in history
The defeat of the Labour Party and the Conservatives Party and the success of the Brexit Party in the European election were predicted in surveys. In the opinion of commentators people were to treat the euro-election like plebiscite. And the lines of division are going to be marked not by traditional differences among particular political groups, but the attitude to leaving the European Union by Great Britain.
In these strange elections in which the Brits did not want to vote, and the euro-deputies elected by them may not gain their posts, it was predicted that the political groups opting for definite leaving the EU (Brexit Party) and the pro-European groups (liberal democrats and the greens) would succeed. It became compatible to predictions and the taste of the defeat among traditional groups strengthened the post-election surveys.
If there were parliamentary elections, the Conservative Party would get the worst result in history. It would give the Tories only the third place in the election, ex aequo with the Labour Party. The Conservative Party has not had a lower place than the second one in the general elections during the 190-year history. The Labour Party has not been defeated so…..101 years ago.
They have to be fought against
The reasons for this….revolution seem to be quite obvious. The biggest British parties are paying the price for the impasse connected with brexit which is delayed in relation to the lack of support of the majority for an agreement negotiated with the Union, regulating conditions of leaving it by Great Britain. This agreement has already been rejected by the House of Commons three times.
Leaders of the Brexit Party were trying to present the election for the euro-parliament as a test for British democracy and a fight for respecting the result of the referendum of 2016 and under this motto they would attend the accelerated parliamentary election. And Farage’s party and liberal democrats are arguing that the both main parties were deeply dishonest towards electors and they have to be fought against. And they are building their position on it – says dr. Przemysław Biskup from the Polish Institute of International Issues.
But there will not be accelerated election as neither the Conservatives Party nor the Labour Party want to allow for it. It is difficult for carps to accelerate Christmas….
Effect of a snow ball
The impasse about brexit had to make the prime minister Theresa May resign from her post and rivalry about this post among representatives of various wings of the Conservative Party; including a definite brexit supporter – the former chief of the Foreign Ministry Boris Johnson, who can gain the power due to the success of the Brexit Party. And the Conservative Party and the Labour Party have time to stop very probable decomposition of the British political arena. If they are only able to do it. Because the effect of a snow ball may appear.
Although the results of the euro-election have not been equal to the parliamentary ones so far, this time, facing up emotions which are in Great Britain, it may be different. It is proved by aforementioned post-election poll. The British seem not to be treating the euro-election as protest vote – an occasion to express their opposition, but they see it as a plebiscite.
For people of strong opinions about brexit, the Conservative Party and the Labour Party are discredited. And the Brexit Party has large potential of taking over local structures of the Tories – dr Biskup notes. For some electors the brexit identity is more important than the party one.
After putting off brexit for autumn it seemed that for now the issue has gone into the background. Even if it is so, not it is returning with doubled power.
Translated by Aneta Amrozik
„Niedziela” 24/2019